During the fall, meteorologists sharpen their assumption to build their probability weighted winter weather forecast scenarios. From an energy perspective, this is also a critical time of the year. Since it is typically a period of low energy demand, there tend to be seasonal dips that provide good buying opportunities in natural and electricity. This year though, natural gas prices have been seesawing since mid-July 2014 due to the following reasons:
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Natural gas inventories have recovered significantly after reaching an 11-year record low of 822Bcf in late March-2014. During the last nine weeks, natural gas injections into storage have outperformed historical levels, and eight of them exceeded 100Bcf/week. Moreover, the last nine injections have exceeded the five-year average gains by 24Bcf on average. The drivers behind these above normal injections are the following:
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