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Energy Insider Blog

2014-2015 Winter Weather, What to Expect?

Posted by Alberto Rios on Oct 9, 2014 11:59:00 AM

During the fall, meteorologists sharpen their assumption to build their probability weighted winter weather forecast scenarios. From an energy perspective, this is also a critical time of the year. Since it is typically a period of low energy demand, there tend to be seasonal dips that provide good buying opportunities in natural and electricity. This year though, natural gas prices have been seesawing since mid-July 2014 due to the following reasons:

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Topics: Heating Season\, Polar Vortex, Texas Energy, forward curve, winter strip, spot price, energy risk management, energy sourcing, Acclaim Energy Advisors, energy management consulting, energy, energy, energy procurement, energy procurement, weather outlook, weather outlook, reliable energy, energy costs, power generation, Weekly Energy Insights, natural gas, natural gas, Event, energy management, energy management consultants, strategic energy sourcing, reserve margin, Price Spike, energy blog, power outages, Natural Gas Supply, price volatility, reserve, report, energy storage, NG Demand, seasonal drought, energy supply, EIA, Texas, Winter Weather, U.S. energy, NG, forecasting, refueling season, NG contract

Weather Effect on Regional Natural Gas Spot Prices

Posted by Jennifer Chang on Aug 29, 2014 11:08:00 AM

Multiple supply and demand factors affect seasonal natural gas and electricity spot [1]prices across the country:

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Topics: Heating Season\, Polar Vortex, forward curve, winter strip, spot price, Heat Rate, black swan event, pipeline capacity, energy sourcing, Acclaim Energy Advisors, risk management, energy, energy procurement, weather outlook, demand response, energy regulations, energy reliability, energy savings, Weekly Energy Insights, natural gas, energy management, reserve margin, energy price spikes, Price Spike, energy blog, Natural Gas Supply, price volatility, NG Demand, Winter Weather, new england, NG

5 Things to Monitor for the Balance of 2014

Posted by Jennifer Chang on Jul 28, 2014 10:20:00 AM

A brutal cold start of the year has been followed by moderate temperatures across the country. Natural gas prices have risen significantly since early January 2014, as inventories were being depleted at a faster than normal rate due to higher than normal heating demand. Nevertheless, record production and tepid demand after the spring months triggered a massive selloff in mid-June 2014, with the front month losing more than 20 percent to date. Early concerns of tight supply conditions ahead of the next heating season have eased due to weekly record or near-record injections. Electricity prices have also plunged not only because of the recent drop in natural gas prices, but also because of a drop in heat rates. In Texas, peak load had not been this low in June and July since 2010. Low electricity demand has depressed spot and forward heat rates.

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Topics: energy risk management, energy sourcing, Acclaim Energy Advisors, risk management, energy procurement, energy procurement, weather outlook, reliable energy, demand response, energy reliability, power generation, Weekly Energy Insights, natural gas, Event, economic demand response, energy management, energy management consultants, strategic energy sourcing, Hurricane Season, reserve margin, energy price spikes, renewable energy, Price Spike, energy blog, power outages, Natural Gas Supply, price volatility, reserve, report, energy efficiency, mild weather, energy storage, NG Demand, seasonal drought

Natural Gas Supply Outpacing Demand

Posted by Jennifer Chang on Jul 11, 2014 12:39:00 PM

Natural gas inventories have recovered significantly after reaching an 11-year record low of 822Bcf in late March-2014. During the last nine weeks, natural gas injections into storage have outperformed historical levels, and eight of them exceeded 100Bcf/week. Moreover, the last nine injections have exceeded the five-year average gains by 24Bcf on average. The drivers behind these above normal injections are the following:

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Topics: Texas Energy, tropical storm, hurricane, energy sourcing, Acclaim Energy Advisors, energy management consulting, risk management, energy, Energy Solutions, energy procurement, weather outlook, reliable energy, demand response, energy regulations, energy reliability, energy savings, Weekly Energy Insights, natural gas, energy management, Price Spike, energy blog, power outages, Natural Gas Supply, price volatility, mild weather, energy supply, Texas, load generators, Peak Demand, forecasting

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Top Commodity Performers in 2013: Natural Gas Price Action Recap

Posted by Jennifer Chang on Feb 14, 2014 8:43:00 AM

During this winter season, natural gas price volatility has been extreme as temperatures have fallen to unprecedented levels due to the breakdown of the polar vortex. Low temperature records were broken across the U.S., natural gas heating-related demand has risen and natural gas inventories have been depleted at a faster rate when compared to historical benchmarks.  Nevertheless, natural gas has not been the most volatile commodity in recent years according to the U.S. Global Investors Periodic table of Commodities Returns. In the last 10 years, the most and the least volatile commodity returns have been registered in Nickel and Gold respectively. Crude Oil has been a top three performer in four of the last 10 years, while natural gas has only been in this category two out of the last 10 years.   

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Topics: Polar Vortex, energy risk management, energy sourcing, Acclaim Energy Advisors, energy procurement, weather outlook, reliable energy, demand response, energy regulations, energy reliability, energy savings, energy costs, power generation, Weekly Energy Insights, natural gas, Event, energy management, energy management consultants, energy price spikes, Price Spike, energy blog, power outages, Natural Gas Supply, price volatility, Winter Weather, curtailment, Emergency, NG contract

Highest NYMEX Natural Gas Expiration in Four Years: Tough Risk Management Lesson for Some

Posted by Jennifer Chang on Jan 31, 2014 5:16:00 PM

On January 2, 2014, the NYMEX Henry Hub NG February-2014 (front month) contract settled at $4.321/MMBtu, and on January 29, 2014, the contract expired at $5.557/MMBtu (see chart below). This was the highest expiration settlement price for the front month in four years. During the month of January, the front month contract rose $1.24/MMBtu, or 28.6%. The chart below shows that on expiration day (1/29/14) the front month price posted a $0.52/MMBtu or 10% gain for the day. The March 2014 contract followed suit and rallied almost 11%, settling at $5.465/MMBtu. During the expiration day, weather forecasts turned colder than previously expected, so market players that underestimated demand rushed to the market and were clobbered in a short squeeze.

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Topics: energy risk management, energy sourcing, Acclaim Energy Advisors, energy, Energy Solutions, energy procurement, reliable energy, demand response, energy regulations, energy reliability, energy savings, energy costs, power generation, Weekly Energy Insights, natural gas, energy management, energy management consultants, energy price spikes, Price Spike, energy blog, Natural Gas Supply, price volatility, energy supply, U.S. energy, NG, curtailment, Emergency, gas gross production report, price direction, NG contract, NYMEX

   

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